Dan Basse of AgResource Company delivered a detailed look at the Ag Economy in one of the most popular sessions at the American Seed Trade Association’s Field Crop Convention, held this week in Orlando, FL. Dan’s presentations are always loaded with data and insight. Going into 2025, the outlook is fairly bearish which is probably not surprising in light of a difficult economy for Ag in 2024. Below are some of the notes and highlights from Dan’s presentation:

• Commodity prices (particularly corn and soybeans) will likely remain depressed, due in part to high supply and no new big demand drivers – ending stocks will creep up.
• Farmer optimism has moved up since Trump’s election as the next President – farmers received significant financial assistance during Trump’s first term and is likely driving expectations for treatment in his second term.
• While direct farm payments are expected to get a big bump up, the increasing U.S. debt might be problematic for this sort of direct assistance – the U.S. national debt is increasing by about $1 trillion every 100 days.
• Agricultural trade with China remains massively important and is increasingly thorny – China is increasing commodity imports from Brazil and will continue to diversify its suppliers to South America – and of course, China is already taking steps to counter the expected tariffs to be imposed by the new Administration.
• One interesting observation was the evolution of a new global economic Duopoly:
  • The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) combined for 32% of global GDP.
  • The G-7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) combined for 30% of global GDP.
• The expected demand for soy in biodiesel has been disrupted by surging imports of used cooking oil from China, which until very recently was subsidized by China through an export tax rebate.​​​​