Modern agriculture is as much a scientific enterprise as it is a practical one, relying on a myriad of scientific fields, including molecular biology, plant breeding, plant pathology, entomology, veterinary medicine, mechanical engineering, geospatial informatics, and a host of others. Yet, science – the body of knowledge built by gathering evidence, testing hypotheses, making observations, and recording data – is under widespread, global assault from fraudsters. That is the frightening conclusion of a recently published study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
According to the NAS study, scientific fraud has reached an industrial scale and continues to grow at an astonishing pace. A large part of the problem is the proliferation of junk and fake scientific papers in scientific journals by “paper mills,” i.e., businesses and individuals that sell mass-produced, low-quality research and charge fees to get the research published. The enablers of scientific fraud consist of a global network of paper mills, brokers, complicit editors, unscrupulous authors, conference organizers, and predatory publishers. According to the study’s authors, the rate of fake scientific papers is outpacing legitimate science:
- Suspected paper mill products: Doubling every 1.5 years
- Retracted articles: Doubling every 3.3 years
- All scientific publications: Doubling every 15 years
Moreover, it is firmly believed that these estimates almost certainly underestimate the true amount of junk science that has been published without detection. As a result, the body of scientific knowledge is rapidly being contaminated and poses a grave risk to the entire scientific enterprise.
Combating the problem is quite challenging and will be costly. The pressure on researchers to publish for career advancement and promotion, to receive funding, gain financial rewards, or simply to compete with peers strongly incentivizes unethical and desperate behavior. Another contributor is the “publish or perish” culture that is pervasive in the scientific community. The consequences to authors of fraudulent papers, such as reputational damage or loss of funding, are often ineffective in discouraging bad behavior because there are typically no civil or criminal punishments.
Scientists rely on other scientists to disclose knowledge that can be built upon, on other scientists and on publishers for the screening of scientific studies, on publishers for the dissemination of their work and on funding agencies and universities for support. Universities and funding agencies rely on scientists for evaluating the work of their peers and on the state and society for their funding. Private-sector firms rely on universities to educate a knowledgeable workforce. The state and society rely on scientists to produce knowledge that will improve well-being and state security.
Agriculture, medicine, and all manner of professions, industries, and human endeavors will suffer from a collapse in authentic, legitimate science. One of the strongest suggestions urged by the authors of the NAS study is to remove the roles for accountability from those with potential conflicts of interest.
A copy of the NAS’s study is available here.
A Rare Breed Produces Rare Beef
An old and rare breed of cattle – Rubia Gallega – was recently introduced to North America by Missouri-based Reserve Cattle Company to challenge Wagyu in the high-end premium beef market. The breed is native to the Galicia province of Spain where it was originally a dual-purpose breed for draft power and milk. Like many dual-purpose breeds, it shifted primarily to beef production in the 20th century. Worldwide, there are only about 40,000 head of Rubia Gallega, nearly all of which are located in Galencia, Spain. Although the breed is new to North America, the beef has a renowned reputation which some chefs claim to have the best steaks in the world. One unique practice among Rubia Gallega producers is harvesting beef from older, mature stock, as much as 8 to 12 years old and dry-aging the meat. This process apparently results in remarkably flavored beef cuts.
Reserve Cattle Company is the first (and apparently only) cattle producer in North America with any Rubia Gallega stock, which they began importing in 2019.
It is always a pleasure to see a producer who breaks away from the standard commodity route to offer a unique product. In most cases, these folks either create or capture a premium market and get some insulation from uncontrollable market forces that characterize commodity markets.
China’s Really Big Bet on South American Crops
The Wall Street Journal has been reporting on China’s construction of a new export terminal in Santos, Brazil, which will be one of the world’s largest when it reaches full operation in 2026, growing from an annual capacity of 4.5 million tons to 14 million tons. One of the primary reasons for the new terminal is to allow China to increase purchases of South American agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, corn, and sugar, and reduce its reliance on U.S. crops. The new terminal began operation earlier this year, which is in addition to a deep-water port being built in Peru for which China is the majority financer. In short, China is weaning itself off of U.S. farm products in favor of South America.
There can be little doubt that U.S. farmers will need to develop export markets beyond China, and possibly pivot some production to different agricultural products that are in shorter global supply.
A link to a Wall Street Journal video report is here.
